Martingale vs Anti-Martingale vs fixed auto-cashout at 1.20x

This is the head-to-head comparison promised in our crash strategy pillar. We tested three systems at a 1.20x auto-cashout with the same $500 bankroll and $10 base bet, over 10,000 simulated sessions each.

Why 1.20x?

1.20x is one of the most-searched targets because it “almost always” lands. At 97% RTP:

• P(reach 1.20x) = 0.97 ÷ 1.2 = 80.8%
• Profit per win: $2 on a $10 bet
• Loss per miss: $10

So you need five wins to cover each loss, and five wins in a row at 80.8% happen only about 34% of the time.

The three systems

• Fixed: bet $10 every round.
• Martingale: after a loss, multiply the bet so one win recovers the loss. At 1.20x pure doubling doesn’t recover the loss (a $20 bet only wins $4), so true 1.20x Martingale needs ×6 escalation. Our simulator uses classic doubling, which recovers only partly at low targets. That makes the “recovery” weaker than people expect.
• Anti-Martingale: after a win, the next bet is the full $12 returned; reset after three wins or any loss.

Results

System (1.20x, 100 rounds)	Median	10th pct	90th pct	Bust rate
Fixed	$472	$412	$532	0%
Martingale (doubling)	$472	$368	$542	0.5%
Anti-Martingale (3-win cap)	$465	$388	$535	0%

Crash Game Guide simulator, 10,000 sessions each, 3% edge, fixed seed. Run your own above or in the simulator.

What the numbers say

1. The median loss is roughly the same because each system wagers a similar total, and the edge takes 3% of it.
2. Martingale widens both tails. Its bad sessions are worse than flat betting ($368 vs $412), its good sessions are slightly better, and it carries a small chance of losing everything.
3. Anti-Martingale keeps losses capped at one base bet per cycle. At 1.20x the streak bonus is small, because three wins only grow a $10 stake to $17.28.

Verdict

At 1.20x, flat betting is the most reliable default. Martingale’s 0.5% bust rate looks tiny, but it is a total loss, and over a year of sessions it becomes likely. If you want some upside, Anti-Martingale is the safer way to get it. Read the deep dives on Martingale, Anti-Martingale and fixed cash-out targets.