Martingale strategy for crash games
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Martingale is the oldest betting system there is: double your stake after every loss and go back to the base stake after a win. In crash games it’s usually paired with a 2x auto-cashout, because at 2x one win exactly recovers all previous losses plus one base bet. It’s part of our crash game strategy series. Read this before you try it.
How Martingale works at 2x
| Round | Bet | Result | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | Lose | −$10 |
| 2 | $20 | Lose | −$30 |
| 3 | $40 | Lose | −$70 |
| 4 | $80 | Win (2x) | +$10 |
Every cycle that ends in a win nets exactly +$10. That’s why it feels unbeatable at first.
Where it breaks
The bet doubles every loss: 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640. After six losses you’ve staked $630, and the seventh bet needs $640 more. With a $500 bankroll you can’t place it, and the cycle ends in a large loss.
At 97% RTP you lose at 2x 51.5% of the time:
| Losses in a row | Chance per cycle | Total staked |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 7.0% | $150 |
| 5 | 3.6% | $310 |
| 6 | 1.9% | $630 |
| 8 | 0.5% | $2,550 |
Each cycle is short, so you play many cycles per session. A 1.9% event in each of 50 cycles happens at least once in about 61% of sessions.
Simulation results
$500 bankroll, $10 base bet, 2x target, 3% edge, 10,000 sessions:
- 100 rounds: median $0, bust rate 50.3%, but the 90th percentile finished at $1,030
- 1,000 rounds: bust rate 94.3%
The upside is real but rare. The downside arrives more often than it feels like it should.
Table limits
Casinos cap the maximum bet. Even with an unlimited bankroll, a long enough streak hits the cap, and from that point you can’t recover. The cap is one reason Martingale can’t work even in theory.
If you still want to try it
- Treat the whole bankroll as the stake, and expect to lose it.
- Use a stop-loss in auto-bet so you don’t refill and keep doubling.
- Compare it with Anti-Martingale, which keeps each loss to one unit, or flat betting at a fixed auto-cashout.
Strategy simulator
- Median final bankroll
- Unlucky (10th percentile)
- Lucky (90th percentile)
- Chance of going bust
- Median max drawdown
- Average rounds played
Example: 1000 sessions of 100 rounds, bankroll $500, base bet $10, target 2x, 3% edge
| Strategy | Median final bankroll | Unlucky (10th percentile) | Lucky (90th percentile) | Chance of going bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale (double after loss) | $460 | $0 | $1,020 | 46.5% |
| Anti-Martingale (double after win, reset after 3) | $460 | $210 | $720 | 1.1% |
| Fixed bet | $480 | $360 | $600 | 0.0% |
Run it a few times with different settings to find the approach that fits your bankroll and playing style.
Top crash games
Frequently asked questions
Does Martingale work in Aviator?
It wins small amounts often, but a long losing streak can outrun your bankroll or the table limit. It needs a deep bankroll and strict stop rules.
What target should I use with Martingale?
At 2x, doubling exactly recovers losses. At lower targets doubling doesn't fully recover. At higher targets losing streaks become longer and more likely. There is no safe target.
How many losses in a row can happen at 2x?
At 97% RTP the chance of losing at 2x is 51.5%. Eight losses in a row happen about 0.5% of the time per attempt. Over a few hundred rounds, a long streak becomes likely.
By Daniel Foster · Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
Fact-checked by Alex Morgan
Published · Updated
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