Chasing high multipliers: the real odds of 10x, 50x and 100x
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Big multipliers are the reason many people play crash games: one 100x cash-out turns $5 into $500. This page shows how rare those rounds are and how long the gaps between them last, so you can size bets that survive the wait. It belongs to our crash game strategy series.
How often each multiplier hits
| Target | Chance per round | About 1 in | Chance of none in 100 rounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10x | 9.7% | 10 | 0.004% |
| 20x | 4.85% | 21 | 0.7% |
| 50x | 1.94% | 52 | 14% |
| 100x | 0.97% | 103 | 38% |
| 1,000x | 0.097% | 1,031 | 91% |
Calculated at 97% RTP. See the full multiplier probability table.
Dry spells are the norm
The gap between 100x rounds averages about 103 rounds, but it varies a lot. About 5% of the time you’ll go 300 rounds without one. At $5 per round that’s $1,500 staked before the hit, and the hit pays $495 profit.
Simulated results
Flat $5 bets at 100x, $500 bankroll, 200 rounds, 10,000 sessions: the median session went bust, 51.5% of sessions busted, and the 90th percentile finished at $1,500. That’s the shape of high-target play: most sessions lose, a few win big.
If you chase big targets
- Use tiny stakes, 0.2–0.5% of the bankroll, so you can survive long gaps.
- Decide the number of rounds in advance.
- Consider a dual bet if you want some rounds to return something, but remember it doubles your stake.
- Ignore “it’s due” thinking. Nothing in the round history changes the next round. See Can You Predict Crash Games?.
Check any target in the auto-cashout calculator, or compare with low-risk play.
Auto-cashout probability calculator
- Chance to reach target
- 48.5%
- Expected value per $10.00 bet
- -$0.30
- Win rate needed to break even
- 50.0%
Common targets (3.0%)
| Target | Chance to reach target | About 1 in | Expected value per $10.00 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20x | 80.8% | 1.24 | -$0.30 |
| 1.50x | 64.7% | 1.55 | -$0.30 |
| 2.00x | 48.5% | 2.06 | -$0.30 |
| 3.00x | 32.3% | 3.09 | -$0.30 |
| 5.00x | 19.4% | 5.15 | -$0.30 |
| 10.00x | 9.70% | 10 | -$0.30 |
| 100x | 0.97% | 103 | -$0.30 |
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Frequently asked questions
How often does Aviator hit 100x?
At a 97% RTP, a round reaches 100x about 0.97% of the time, roughly once every 103 rounds on average. Streaks of several hundred rounds without one are normal.
Is it due after a long time without a big multiplier?
No. Each round is independent, so the chance is the same every round regardless of history.
By Daniel Foster · Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
Fact-checked by Alex Morgan
Published · Updated
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