Auto-cashout probability calculator
Auto-cashout probability calculator
- Chance to reach target
- 48.5%
- Expected value per $10.00 bet
- -$0.30
- Win rate needed to break even
- 50.0%
Common targets (3.0%)
| Target | Chance to reach target | About 1 in | Expected value per $10.00 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20x | 80.8% | 1.24 | -$0.30 |
| 1.50x | 64.7% | 1.55 | -$0.30 |
| 2.00x | 48.5% | 2.06 | -$0.30 |
| 3.00x | 32.3% | 3.09 | -$0.30 |
| 5.00x | 19.4% | 5.15 | -$0.30 |
| 10.00x | 9.70% | 10 | -$0.30 |
| 100x | 0.97% | 103 | -$0.30 |
The formula
For a crash game with house edge e, the probability that a round reaches target multiplier x is:
P(reach x) ≈ (1 − e) ÷ x
The expected profit per unit staked is P × x − 1 = −e. It is the same for every target. A low target wins more often but pays less, a high target wins rarely but pays more, and the edge stays the same.
Break-even win rate
To break even when cashing out at x, you need to win 1 ÷ x of your rounds. The calculator shows this next to the real probability, so you can see the gap the house edge creates.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance of reaching 2x in a crash game?
At a 3% house edge (97% RTP), about 48.5%. At 1% edge (99% RTP), about 49.5%.
What win rate do I need at 1.5x to break even?
You need to win 1 ÷ 1.5 = 66.7% of rounds. The game's actual hit rate at 1.5x with a 3% edge is about 64.7%, and that gap is the house edge.
By Daniel Foster · Crash Game Maths & Mechanics Analyst
Daniel focuses on the mathematics and mechanics behind crash games. His reviews examine RTP disclosures, volatility, multipliers, game mechanics and the mathematical principles behind different crash titles.
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